The Times That Try Our Souls…. Are They Here Yet?

| June 27, 2022

1967 Blizzard

Regarding a pending recession:  YouTube video “Why Recessions May Be Inevitable”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q917Mp3yerE

Now that you’ve settled in, with some popcorn in a bowl and a cold beverage within easy reach, we’re either in a recession or we are heading for one, depending on whoever you talk to or watch. The video link has both sides of that coin. Historically, the USA has had two heavy-duty recessions, with one in 1842 and the other in 1932, which – as one analyst has pointed out – were 90 years apart. His view is based on the timing of things, and here we are, 90 years from the last recession in 1932.  Oops.

The only reason I bring this up is that the panic attack runs to stores, shelves being cleaned out, gas prices now outrageous,

In England, the Corn Law riots in the early 1800s occurred because the Corn (grain) Laws forbade the import of grains from Europe, especially during the Napoleonic wars. The Corn Law riots occurred in 1815. One effect was that banks literally closed their doors and would not lend farmers any money, and it did not help that bad weather in England resulted in poor production of grains, fruit and vegetables. The Irish potato famine had caused starvation and riots, resulting in a massive migration of the Irish to America. By 1846, the Corn Laws were completely repealed.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Corn-Law-British-history

In this country, a major recession occurred from 1834 to 1842, and was followed 90 years later by another major recession from 1929 to 1932, both of which followed a major crash in the US stock markets. The timing of these events in this country is a 90-year length of time from the first recession to the second, and we are now at the 90-year time frame for another major recession. This is about timing. There is no spooky stuff here, OK?

The mere fact that many knowledgeable people are discussing a major recession now, as opposed to a mild one with a quick recovery, is telling.

Various financial analysts are predicting a major recession ahead of us, based on the disastrous disturbances in Ukraine and in other parts of the world, and the loss of consumer confidence in the nation’s economic leadership. Considering who is “leading” the nation right now, the forecast by one financial analyst is that, with the current decline at 19.75% in the DJIA, if it goes beyond 26%, it would also be the first time that any Democrat President has presided over a stock market crash of over 26% since 1900 (Yes, FDR oversaw a secondary decline of 50% in 1938, but the real “crash” was the 86% decline in 1929-1932 under Herbert Hoover.) Since it is usually Republicans in the White House if the DJIA drops below 26%, it should be interesting to watch from the sidelines what happens over the next few months.

Everything points to a major recession (not an economic depression, although that’s possible). I do not claim to be a forecaster or an expert.  Just putting this up so that you have a heads up on how things are, and what may or may not happen down the road.  This is where I tell people to hide some cash ($10s & $20s) some place, not because the banks will seize your cash assets (unless your assets exceed the FDIC protection limit), but because runs on ATMs and on banks by panicked idiots may result in your local bank saying “Sorry, but Dillinger was just here and took it all”, or something like that. Start setting aside that cash now and don’t wait for me to tell you again. And don’t discuss it with anyone, especially your grandkids.

Why am I bringing this up? Because panicked people can empty a bank’s coffers and the ATMs faster than you can imagine. Start now and keep your yap shut about it.

These are strange times we are inhabiting…. Strange times, indeed. Take nothing for granted. Keep your powder dry, your weapons ready, and your cash in a safe spot, and your eyes on the horizon.

Category: "Teh Stoopid", "Truth or fiction?", 2020 Election, Biden, DC Government, Economy, Geezer Alert!, Historical, Ivory Tower Idiocy

26 Comments
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Graybeard

I think we’re just seeing the “beginning of birth pangs”, myself.
These “new poor” are not going to know how to live. We “old poor” got this in the bag.
“Somebody told us Wall Street fell, but we were so poor that we couldn’t tell.”
https://youtu.be/lHdXQAQHjd8

ninja

Graybeard

Always loved that one!

ninja

In the last hour, we forwarded the Alabama song you shared here on TAH to friends and family with the comment “Never forget your roots and where you came from…”

The video is taking off and going wild vi social network (we come from a large family)…and we owe it all to you, Graybeard…Thank You so much for sharing..We ALMOST forgot that song (KoB, please forgive us!! gabn/hbtd/rtr)..😉😎

Your song and Hank Williams song among our family…one family member reminded us to share “Believe”…

A big shout out to our ExPh2 for the article….a reminder that yes, we need to continue to be ready as well as those birth pangs.

MustangCryppie

If they aren’t, I sure as hell don’t want to be around when they do!

Wireman611

I’ve started buying specie.

Roh-Dog

this

Anonymous

Buy ammo, gold and canned food, and keep your fingers crossed.

Roh-Dog

this

11B-Mailclerk

All in all, it has been a pretty good week. Thank you, Donald Trump.

11B-Mailclerk

5.56 counts as “canned goods”, yes?

Graybeard

Of course.

KoB

Guess I’ll use the bodies of the ones that didn’t prepare for this upcoming “re-set” to shore up that North Wall.

Us old folks will be the FIRST Targets of the Stasi. We are some of the few that have the necessary survival skilz.

Roh-Dog

I’ve said it before so I’m not going to say the things…
ok, I will: food, guns, ammo, medical supplies, a way of making clean water, commo, and a good collection of people on whom you can trust, preferably with skills.

The Christians In Action Fact Book, the UN, World Bank, etc. have this theory that if food gets to be over 40% of an average household’s budget in a nation the probability of revolution or widespread unrest is >90%.

You’ve been warned.

Also, the consumer depositor is number 8 on the FDIC/Bankruptcy courts payee list. Thanks Dodd/Frank!

Warned again.

See the two comments I ‘this’ed below for what I’m doing. It’s heavy. Yellow. And barbarous.

What could come, and very soon, would make ’08 seem like the good ol’ days.

Be warned.

(almost got away w/o havinta edit. tired. bed.)

Last edited 1 month ago by Roh-Dog
26Limabeans

Last time around we had a younger generation that was willing
to work at any job. Now we have a younger generation that has
no such interest and will riot if we don’t feed them.
Hell, they don’t even know how to hunt let alone grow food.
Plenty of food roaming the woods around here.
Plenty of firewood also.
Plenty of lakes and streams.
Oh, and plenty of ammo…

ninja

Folks:

When we initially read this New York Times article dated 19 November 2020, we had to do a double take to ensure it was not a Babylon Bee or The Onion article.

This article DID NOT AGE WELL…We are cutting and pasting the article because of the Paywall in order for all to read:

“Making The Most Of The Coming Biden Boom: The Economic Outlook Is Probably Brighter Than You Think”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/19/opinion/joe-biden-economy.html

“The next few months are going to be incredibly grim. The pandemic is exploding, but Donald Trump is tweeting while America burns. His officials, unwilling to admit that he lost the election, are refusing even to share coronavirus data with the Biden team.”

ninja

“As a result, many preventable deaths will occur before a vaccine’s widespread distribution. And the economy will take a hit, too; travel is declining, an early indicator of a slowdown in job growth and possibly even a return to job losses as virus fears cause consumers to hunker down again.”

“But a vaccine is coming. Nobody is sure which of the promising candidates will prevail, or when they’ll be widely available. But it’s a good guess that we’ll get this pandemic under control at some point next year.”

“And it’s also a good bet that when we do the economy will come roaring back.”

ninja

“OK, this is not the consensus view. Most economic forecasters appear to be quite pessimistic; they expect a long, sluggish recovery that will take years to bring us back to anything resembling full employment. They worry a lot about long-term “scarring” from unemployment and closed businesses. And they could be right.”

“But my sense is that many analysts have overlearned the lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, which was indeed followed by years of depressed employment, defying the predictions of economists who expected the kind of “V-shaped” recovery the economy experienced after earlier deep slumps. For what it’s worth, I was among those who dissented back then, arguing that this was a different kind of recession, and that recovery would take a long time.”

ninja

“OK, this is not the consensus view. Most economic forecasters appear to be quite pessimistic; they expect a long, sluggish recovery that will take years to bring us back to anything resembling full employment. They worry a lot about long-term “scarring” from unemployment and closed businesses. And they could be right.”

“But my sense is that many analysts have overlearned the lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, which was indeed followed by years of depressed employment, defying the predictions of economists who expected the kind of “V-shaped” recovery the economy experienced after earlier deep slumps. For what it’s worth, I was among those who dissented back then, arguing that this was a different kind of recession, and that recovery would take a long time.”

Roh-Dog

The Trump Shot® saved the economy? Pressing X to doubt.

Joey-o killed the pipelinestar:

They took the credit for your second symphony

Rewritten by machine on new technology

And now I understand the problems you can see

Last edited 1 month ago by Roh-Dog
ninja

“And here’s the thing: The same logic that predicted sluggish recovery from the last big slump points to a much faster recovery this time around — again, once the pandemic is under control.”

“What held recovery back after 2008? Most obviously, the bursting of the housing bubble left households with high levels of debt and greatly weakened balance sheets that took years to recover.”

“This time, however, households entered the pandemic slump with much lower debt. Net worth took a brief hit but quickly recovered. And there’s probably a lot of pent-up demand: Americans who remained employed did a huge amount of saving in quarantine, accumulating a lot of liquid assets.”

ninja

There is more on the article, but unfortunately, we cannot cut and paste anymore… 🙄 

Hope you all can read the article via the link. As we shared, this 19 November 2020 DID NOT AGE WELL…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/19/opinion/joe-biden-economy.html

Messkit

I hate that “blizzard” photo. While there may indeed have been a large snowstorm in the area, it wasn’t to the top of the power poles! The crossbars have been lowered, so the sagging lines don’t pull the poles over. Look at the tree. If the “blizzard” had been so bad, the snow would be halfway up the branches. But, nope. 20-30-40 feet of snow? Not according to the houses in the background, which are still fully visible. I mean, the pavement of the road is right there!

Steadfast&loyal

In my area carpenters and other residential construction workers are getting laid off.

Similar to ‘08. No way to predict how big but we’re looking at Jimmy Carter era stuff. Just hoping a Reagan style president comes back